Who knows how much a dollar will cost in six months? Nuances and rules for customs clearance of a car

After the April US sanctions, the dollar moved from the range formed in January-March with a center of fluctuations of about 57 rubles to the “sideways” with average values ​​of about 62 rubles.

The key driver of the weakening was the massive exit of non-residents from OFZ.

According to calculations, from April 9 to the current moment, non-residents in aggregate withdrew from OFZ about 250 billion rubles - more than 10% of the volume in the hands of non-residents. The share of non-residents fell from 34.5% to at least 31.5%. The index of net prices for OFZ fell from 144.8 points to 141.17 points, securities were partly bought by residents for rubles, but even this factor did not help the benchmark to recover above 142.5 points.

Bonds have lost their attractiveness as an instrument for short-term carry trade in the broadest sense of this term. The increased currency and country risks (and the accompanying rise in inflationary expectations) significantly reduced the likelihood of easing the monetary policy of the Central Bank at the next meetings and, therefore, the prospects for a proportional increase in net OFZ prices.

The neutral key rate has moved closer to 7% per annum, which leaves no room for a decrease in the key rate from the current level of 7.25%, even taking into account low inflation. As for the growth in oil prices to the highs of 2014, this support factor was leveled by a proportional increase in purchases of the Central Bank / Ministry of Finance in gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Ruble weakness will remain on the horizon for the next quarter. Further, the recovery of the downward trend in inflationary expectations will move the neutral rate closer to 6.5%, which will allow the Central Bank to return to monetary policy easing. By the end of the year, we are still expecting the key rate at 6.75% per annum.

At the same time, the probability of a decrease in the intensity of purchases of currency by the Central Bank / Ministry of Finance is high. Since the beginning of 2017, the gold and foreign exchange reserves have grown from $ 378 billion to more than $ 457 billion due to the increase in government reserves. The long-term goal of the Central Bank of $ 500 billion is very likely to be achieved this year.

An intensive build-up of reserves should greatly complicate inflation targeting, since a large volume of ruble money supply to the market, which speaks in favor of reducing the intensity of purchases in the future. In addition, the implementation of the budget rule (now the oil and gas budget revenues from the oil price above $ 40 per barrel are directed to the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic market) can very conveniently be mitigated due to the implementation of the new presidential decrees in May, for which funding sources have not yet been found.

The new balance of medium-term exchange rate factors still indicates a high probability of reaching the goal of 57.7 for the dollar / ruble pair by the end of the year, we consider this as the baseline scenario.

It makes no sense to talk about the role of a good website in promoting a business - and so everything is clear. More interested in the question: how much does it cost to create a website? Let's try to figure it out together. Here's an honest overview of prices.

So, you are wondering how much it costs to make a website on the Internet, the exact price?

Us too! Let's figure it out together.

Of course, there are different sites: you can build an info page on a wix-style constructor - save money, and it will take no more than an hour to create a "site". You don't have to involve any specialists - you can do it yourself.

But if you aim at a large federal-scale project, such as Wildberries, that's a completely different matter. It will take more than one month of work, an impressive budget, as well as several dozen specialists - marketers, copywriters, programmers, directors, etc.

In this article, we will not take into account free platforms and millions of projects. Let's start simple. Let's say we want to create a small business website. For the sake of experiment, I have chosen the subject of legal services. From the content you need a home page, a contact page and a service section. At the same time, we need to select a flexible engine so that in the future the site can be modified to suit the needs of users or SEO.

What determines the cost of website development?

1. Complexity of the project. It's one thing if you just need a website that presents your business on the Internet with a brief summary of the services offered, and quite another if you want to create a powerful service with a system of personal user accounts.
2. Experience and credibility of the company. The price largely depends on where you apply. The services of a big, cool company that has been developing websites over the past decade are more expensive than an office of student programmers that just opened yesterday. The price tag rises significantly if the company takes some honorable place in the Runet ratings - for example, in the CMS magazine rating.
3. The number of specialists involved in the development. One head is good, but seven is better. Most often, when turning to freelancers, we must understand that all the work will be done by one person at once: from design to programming. Can one person be a first-class specialist in everything at the same time? I cannot give a definite answer. It's another matter if everyone is busy with their own: a marketer researches the market and is developing a strategy, a copywriter writes texts, a designer draws a layout, a layout designer makes up, a programmer writes a code, etc.
4. Management System (CMS). This parameter depends solely on the specifics of your business. If you can find a good free CMS - great. However, customers often need some kind of special solution, so searches lead to paid engines. This also affects the final cost of the project. By the way, here's about the most popular control systems.

In order to compare prices and reveal the so-called average temperature in the hospital, we decided to conduct a small experiment - find performers, find out prices and find out all the details of the development stages.

Here are the requirements that I made for the development of the site and put forward as a short TK: you need a 3-page site (home, services, contacts), made on a flexible engine (with the possibility of further improvements for SEO requirements or based on user behavior), individual design ( strict, but not boring), texts for the main page (about 2000 characters), for the services page (1500 characters), the main thing is that the site should be convenient and understandable for users. And, of course, I was interested in the timing.

Comparison of prices for website development

So what we got.

Let's compare the initial prices, terms and the number of employees per project:

Why is there such a huge difference in cost? It's easy to explain.

A freelancer takes only for his time - as much as he estimates it. The lower the qualifications, the cheaper. Minimum responsibility, expenses too. There are few projects - as many as you can handle. Freelance is often a supplement to the main activity - study, for example =)

The agency pays for office rent, taxes, utilities, internet, high-quality software for its employees, self-promotion. Add to that vacation pay, sick leave, training costs, administrative staff. There are many projects running in parallel. Extensive experience in various topics. Each specialist develops and improves in his field.

A super agency has all the same expenses as a regular agency. But the cost of these expenses is an order of magnitude higher: higher salaries, because the stars work, the higher the cost of the office, since a super-agency cannot sit in a small modest office on the outskirts, etc. etc.

We will not argue that freelancing is always bad, and an agency (any) is always good. There are nuggets among freelancers who are cheap at the start of their careers, but work in such a way that you will only have to groan with admiration and pleasant surprise. But there are few of them. And after a couple of years of practice on freelance, they grow into full-fledged agencies with price tags of 100 thousand, as they understand that a good product cannot be made alone.

How much does it cost to make a website with us, i.e. to the site?

Our main activity is website promotion. We are also engaged in development and do it with pleasure. There is enough experience, employees too (there are 73 specialists on the staff).

We consider our advantage to have experience in promotion and strong usability specialists. Our projects are not always the most beautiful. Honestly)) But they are comfortable, highly converting and easily go to the TOP. Because the first thing we do, apart from marketing market research, is SEO website design. A complete breakdown of the schemes of work on the creation of a site.

A 3-page business card site with an attractive design, on any CMS, with well-developed texts, with adaptive layout and ready for promotion in search engines costs from 30,000 to 100,000 rubles. 8 specialists will work on the site, development will take about 1 month. Cheaper than most agencies, more expensive than freelancers.

The instability of the modern Russian economy has made all Russians very nervous for many years now. Everyone is watching the fluctuations of the exchange rate with great attention. Why it happens? And all because after the fall of the ruble, there is always a period of rising prices for household appliances, clothing, food, vouchers. This all has a very negative effect on people's real incomes.

Many experts and analysts are trying to make exchange rate forecasts for 2018. The opinions of specialists from government agencies, as well as analysts and other experts are very contradictory. The experts of the Central Bank are confident that the situation is going well and the rates of the national currency will soon reach their pre-crisis level. But experts from commercial structures look to the future with a certain pessimism. Only with time will we find out the real indicators of the dollar exchange rate, however, let's now try to figure out which economic forecasts are considered the most probable.

What influences the situation with the exchange rate?

The world today is not stable. Relations between countries are also changing very quickly. Many factors influence the current dollar rate. At first, these are measures that the Federal Reserve System implements in the area of ​​monetary policy. Secondly, the final / intermediate results of the country's economic life are also considered an important factor (this includes the revenues and expenditures of the state budget). As a result of the revival of the economy, production volumes are also growing very strongly. All this also stimulates the flow of investment funds. As a result, the country has a positive picture of the balance of payments, and this significantly increases the position of the national currency. If there is a local and global economic downturn, then this can lead to a depreciation of the ruble.

Thirdly, the dollar exchange rate is also strongly influenced by the stability of the US political power. It should also be borne in mind that indicators of the state of affairs in the commodity markets will also have an impact on the exchange rate. Everyone knows that the United States is the world leader in the export of "black gold". That is why the policy that is being implemented in this area always has an almost instantaneous impact on the currency market.

Forecasts: how much the dollar will cost in 2018

Analysts at the Central Bank of Russia say that it has already found equilibrium against the dollar. Because of this, the Russians can count on the stability of the exchange rates (if there are no very sharp changes in external conditions). Of course, the ruble's positions are highly dependent on external factors. Among them, oil quotes are in the first place. Many people know that the stability of the exchange rate in Russia is completely dependent on oil prices.

Experts are now talking about several scenarios for the development of events in the foreign exchange market:

- if the price does not exceed $ 40 per barrel, then the country will continue to recession in economic terms, which will lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate (up to about 75-80 rubles per dollar by the beginning of 2019);

- if the oil price is $ 55 per barrel, then this will greatly stimulate activity among investors and have a positive effect on the state of the budget and the position of the Russian ruble.

There is always the possibility of such an important risk factor as the expansion of sanctions by Western countries. After all, this leads to complex devaluation processes. If such sanctions are introduced at the same time and oil prices fall, then the dollar exchange rate in 2018 may be about 85-90 Russian rubles.

Oil support

Many are confident that in 2018, as before, the situation on the energy market will remain practically one of the most important factors affecting the dynamics of the ruble. Some experts believe that if Brent futures stabilize (the price will be in the range of $ 55-65 per barrel), this will allow the ruble to keep exchange rate positions at the level of 2017. By the way, earlier in the Ministry of Finance they said that in 2018 the ruble exchange rate will be at the same level as it was last year (this is only if there are no collapses and external influences on the energy market). Analysts do not rule out a drop in commodity quotations by the end of 2018 against the background of the completion of transactions regarding the freeze of oil production.

Now, when it comes to the dollar exchange rate this year, many analysts say that the big risks lie precisely in the field of geopolitics. Almost everyone agrees that Western sanctions can have a very negative impact on the Russian economy. Some analysts say that by the beginning of summer 2018 the value of the dollar in Russia will be about 53-59 rubles. But, and this is not the limit.

However, very soon Russia will host the FIFA World Cup. This means that there will be a very large influx of tourists. And some analysts expressed the opinion that the dollar could collapse to 51-52 rubles because of this. The last time the dollar exchange rate in Russia was at this mark was in May 2015. At the beginning of this year, there was a lot of information that the Russian ruble continues to strengthen against the dollar. But Western experts assured that the ruble would collapse by the end of March this year. As you can see, these assumptions have come true. Indeed, in early April 2018, the dollar rate crossed the mark of 64 rubles per dollar. Even then, at the beginning of the year, analysts from Nordea and UBS said that the Russian national currency would go down, even if the oil price remained within $ 70 per barrel.

Now experts say that there are many factors that restrain the Russian ruble. Firstly, these are purchases of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, as well as an even greater tightening of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States and the European Union. Secondly, it is a decrease in the attractiveness of transactions due to carry trade. It should also be noted that many experts are confident that the ruble has a rather limited potential for long-term afloat. The current softening monetary policy in the Russian Federation, as well as the increase in rates in the United States of America, may lead to a gradual decrease in the profitability of carry-trade transactions with the ruble.

As you can see, there are a huge number of "pitfalls" regarding the forecast of the dollar rate in Russia. So, at the beginning of this year, it fell below 57 rubles. The beginning of the year certainly made Russian investors very happy. At that time, the stock quotes of the largest companies were also growing very strongly. Now almost every Russian follows the dollar exchange rate. Whatever they say about the fact that with a salary and spending in rubles, you do not need to worry and worry about exchange rates, nevertheless, most people feel better and more confident with a stable ruble exchange rate.